Pure gold reporting on Iraq

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/08/anatomy-of-a-tribal-revolt/

This is the single best piece I've ever read on Iraq. If you didn't know a damn thing about the Iraq situation, and just read this, you'd still know more than a lot of newspaper editors and TV news reporters. I presume that the author is a US spy/intelligence officer. Its very clear, very well reported, and full of new information. I am particularly proud that although 'The implications of the tribal revolt have been somewhat overlooked by the news media and in the public debate in Coalition capitals' they have not been overlooked by this blog. His point that 'the strongest positive implications are the possibility that the revolt might help create a self-sustaining local security architecture' is crucial. In a not-particularly-centralised future Iraq, local security guaruntees will be pivotal. If all parts of the population can live peaceably, many of the other problems that will have to be thrashed out between the tribes, religious constituencies and races become negotiable and soluble.

I predicted some weeks back that the 'insurgency' could well be over in three to six months. That is on course right now. That is not to say that all operations will cease- Iran will no doubt try to find willing Shia patsies to fight for them in Shia communities up and down Iraq, but the overall situation in Iraq will be completely transformed. Once the Sunni/AQiI are neutralised, all other combat becomes manageable and relatively easy. The signs appear to be that the Shia population are becoming disenchanted with armed militias, as the Sunni have been for probably at least a year now. Once the militias become more trouble than they are worth to the populace they are extremely vulnerable, and can be picked off at leisure by special forces task groups.

All in all, the positive signs are getting harder and harder to ignore, and large parts of the 'we've lost, lets just admit it and come home' chorus have fallen silent.