Friday, October 19, 2007

Robust predictive powers

History is often instructive. Whilst reading up on the forthcoming England vs South Africa rugby world cup final game, I found these polls on http://www.rugby365.com/, a reputable rugby website.










I thought the vote was not a reasonable weighing up of the factors involved in both teams coming into this game, so I thought I'd have a look at the results from previous polls.

First, I looked at this one. A whopping 62% of respondents didn't believe England could beat France.






Then, I hit upon this one. According to the genii at rugby365, England had a 3.13% chance of winning the world cup.


















RESPECT!!!

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