Many chinks of daylight in Iraq

http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/

Very interesting confirmation of a trend which has just emerged in Iraq over at Iraq the Model. My sense from reading both MSM and blog info, particularly Milblogs, is that a genuine plain simple Iraqi nationalism is emerging. This simple non-fascistic nationalism is rising to replace sectarianism in some of the most unlikely places.

"At last Friday’s ceremony in a major Shia mosque by a senior Shia cleric — in Najaf no less — Tehran’s interference in Iraq was roundly criticized, calling it an interference that “is not in Iraq’s interest.”Another story notes the withdrawal of the Fadheela Party from the Shia bloc (the UIA). The Fadheela leaders said the reason for breaking away from the UIA was because the UIA didn’t act as a patriotic movement. This step stands as a challenge by the Arabic hierarchy of Yaqoubi (the Ayatollah behind Fadheela) to the Iranian-born Sistani and his hierarchy, combined with a call for nonsectarian political process."

Of course, there are still many blocs of die-hard sectarians who will probably have to be physically destroyed, but if this simple nationalism becomes widespread and covers all three major sections (Kurd north, Sunni centre and Shia south) Iraq will have a major chance of weathering this brutal storm. Many stories are emerging of local Sheikhs and Police chiefs fronting up to local militias and Islamists and winning the vital small local battles which will collectively turn the tide in this conflict. This is genuinely new. I would credit the surge at least in part for this affect. Also, the seemingly interminable nature of this conflict has its own strange logic. The longer the 'insurgency' has gone on, the less viable and meaningful it has become to many of the protagonists. Certainly many Sunni groups who were involved in the popular resistance to the 'occupiers' are now toying with joining up to the national government. High mortality rates and a national government that seems to be genuinely Iraqi and genuinely across-the-board both contribute to their changed mood, I'm guessing.

Iraq the Model does sound one note of warning: "All in all, things are not going the way Khamenie or Nejad were dreaming of just a few months ago. Overall the course of events recently in Iraq indicates the beginning of a severe fall for Iran’s stocks in Iraq.Of course we shouldn’t expect Iran to just sit back and not respond. I think an escalation in attacks by militias loyal to Iran will take place soon, especially outside Baghdad."

In a conversation yesterday, it was mooted that the Baghdad surge would simply move the problem elsewhere, as with Fallujah (not a proven case in my view). The crucial thing, as Gen Petraeus would point out, is that the Baghdad surge is no such thing- the point of the extra 22,000 US troops is to have a surge across the whole of the Sunni heartlands at the same time. A brief perusal of the total output of stories about individual unit actions over the last week or so reveals operations up and down the Sunni triangle. For that portion of the insurgency that is the Sunni nationalists, there is literally nowhere to hide. As far as I can tell, Al Qaeda in Iraq are on the run in many places, especially in those locations where the local population have become more nationalist. The Islamist world-view conflicts directly with nationalism of any variety, hence the waning fortunes of the former.

This insurgency is not over, but we may be seeing the beginning of the end.