Pakistan on the edge

http://frontpagemagazine.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=27517

This is a fascinating and frightening article about Pakistan and its role in world terrorism. Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan are the three main sources of Islamist money, ideas and personnel. Of these three, only Pakistan has 50-60 nuclear weapons. Of the three, the Pakistani government is by far the flimsiest. The Pakistani government has the most tenuous control of its country and its borders. It also has the most potent internal dissent, and the fewest tools at its disposal for dealing with that dissent. President Musharraf is a genuine friend of Britain and America, but that leaves 169 million Pakistanis who loathe us to a greater or lesser extent. Should he 'drop off the twig' as our Foreign Office so endearingly put it, we would confront a very unpleasant near-term situation. Forget about Iraq- there are only 26 million of them, and they don't have anything more lethal than RPG's. Should a toxic combination of ISI (the Pakistani secret service), the Taleban and Al-Qaeda make it into power in Pakistan a powder keg would be turned into a regional and international bomb. Any number of flashpoints could set it off- Kashmir, NWFP politics, tension with Afghanistan, sponsorship of terrorism in Britain.

Although the experts commenting in this article believe it to be a low probability, there is at least some chance that Pakistan could be a second Afghanistan- a chaotic state providing cover and facilities for terrorists, just on a much larger scale. There may be few options for the west and India should that happen. It could get awfully bloody. Wear your extra body army for me, Pervaiz...