Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Not another Hezbollah

'“Is there anything you can do to protect yourself?” I asked the young Iraqi.
“What can I do?” he said. “No one can stop Jaysh al Mahdi. They live in the 16th Century. Everyone I know in Sadr City hates Moqtada al Sadr, but they can do nothing. Many people want the Americans to invade.”'
http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001504.html

If you get right up to the Iraq situation, and look it squarely in the eye, you can see the big things that the US has not done. In any situation both diplomatic or military, you have to work out who you are going to be able to do business with and who not. The Jaysh Al Mahdi or Mahdi Army were never going to be an effective or trustworthy partner in governance. As this article points out, the proxy model Iran established when it created Hezbollah is very effective. The Jaysh al Mahdi now runs along the same lines that Hezbollah, Hamas and a shadowy nascent group in Syria do.

Are we already too late? All the signs are that if you don't destroy these organisations utterly, they quickly reconstitute. Hezbollah has been pummelled a few times but it is currently flourishing. It is now far more lethal and dangerous than at any time in its existence, and Israel will need to work a lot harder next time to break its back. The Clinton doctrine (put off until tomorrow what you can't be bothered to think about today) is very dangerous with Hezbollah-like organisations. The JAM (Jaysh al Mahdi) are already well along the route to being a state within a state. Before the US leaves Iraq, there will have to be a showdown with it, or risk the recreation of the disaster that is Hezbollah, where the tail wags the Lebanese dog. Iraqis, including the majority of Shia, understand this basic fact. Unless JAM is destroyed, it will destroy the Iraqi state like an enormous cancer.

Why the US is toying about with it, I can't imagine. Grasping the nettle doesn't seem to be a US trait any more. Sadly, the longer they wait, the more young Americans and young Iraqi's will die when the balloon goes up. Perhaps the idea is to pick off one 'problem group' in Iraq at a time. Sometimes, though, you don't have the luxury to work on such a leisurely schedule. Israels generals could give them a pretty vivid rundown of why not.

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