On the surge and its subtleties

Its a shame in a way that the surge came in Iraq when it did. Because it happened in early 2007, it is not possible to completely tease out what two other circumstances contributed to the decline in violence and the US victory against the various insurgencies. Those two circumstances are the sea change in attitudes of ordinary Iraqis to the insurgent groups in their neighborhoods, and the change in tactics from huge US bases to the tiny Combat Outpost (COP) system plus joint patrols with Iraqi forces. The surge is being credited for the change and there's no denying that 30,000 extra boots on the ground sends a strong psychological message that the US is not going away and that it refuses to lose.

Saying that, even without surge troops I feel that the COP system and the joint patrols is the right set of tactics for defeating insurgencies. If you are an ordinary non-political Iraqi and the insurgents have run your neighborhood for 3 years using you and you house as cover whether you like it or not, blowing up IED's near you and your children whether you like it or not and threatening to murder people who don't cooperate with them, you probably don't feel like you have any viable options other than cooperating with the insurgents. If a combat outpost suddenly appears a block from your house, permanently manned, and joint patrols of Iraqi/US forces sweeps by your house twice a day, sometimes more, you suddenly have another option. You can put your trust in the government and its forces, and shop the bad guys to the government forces. After the first 10 people do that, and get away with it, the whole insurgent house of cards collapses. Their threats are no longer credible. People decide they want peace, electricity, clean water and a school for their kids, and not a life of perpetual violence and threat.

Al-Qaeda in particular have completely ruined their reputation in Iraq. Now that Iraqis have a clear and vivid idea of what life under Al-Qaeda would be like, they have rejected it wholesale. Al-Qaeda have upped the murder count in response, but they must know in their hearts that they are on the slippery slopes. They are going to be squashed like a bug under foot. New jihadis keep turning up, but the mean time between arriving and dying/going to prison is getting shorter and shorter.

Outside of the Al-Qaeda/Sunni insurgencies, evidence keeps appearing that the Shia population are losing trust and patience with their own militias. As the daily evidence is that the US and the Iraqi government forces are getting stronger, and the militias prospects look bleaker, there is less and less incentive for ordinary Shia to get on board with the militias. It is certainly possible to squeeze the life out of the militias over time, python stylee. The important equation is- what can you offer me? If the militias only offer disruption, violence and trouble, and the government offer work, peace and organisation, people will gravitate away from the former to the latter. I have heard at read at least some evidence that this is happening already. Lets hope it becomes a landslide...