Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Iraqi reconciliation goes up a gear

'One underlying theme speaks volumes about the current state of affairs inside Iraq: without exception, participants feel much better about their country. They are breathing easier about security, they all denounced al Qaeda and other “regional parties” (privately they will tell you they put Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia in the front rank) who have conducted or sponsored the mass killing, they do not want “religious extremists” included in their Reconciliation, and they even believe that Iraq may set an example for the rest of the region.'

http://pajamasmedia.com/xpress/michaelledeen/2008/02/19/church_and_state_in_iraq_the_c.php

Although the large media organisations have the odd piece about progress in Iraq, it is the Blogosphere that has the story in full. Pieces like this, written first hand by an attendee at a conference in Denmark, are the future of news. Just the facts, ma'am. Its very hard not to feel slightly smug about my prognostications for Iraq, but I will resist. My views WERE based on a close reading of many individual blogs and websites, but of course predicting the future is always inherently dodgy. I do feel overwhelmingly happy for the Iraqi people though, as I can tell that many of them now believe that a viable, possibly even excellent, future awaits them.

Patches of Iraq are still terrorised by AQiI but these areas are now islands in a sea controlled by Iraqi government/US forces. All around these patches are areas that have freed themselves of AQiI control by the simple expedient of switching sides, forming militias and handing over timely intel to the Iraqi/US forces. There can't be many local Emirs in Iraq who don't know the recipe by now. Even in Shia areas the locals are frequently deciding that the Mahdi army and the other political militias are abusive and more trouble than they're worth- and shopping them to the police/army. In Arab culture, there is very little stigma attached to changing sides and indeed taking up arms against people you were allied to yesterday. If you do it to live another day, nobody really holds it against you. Now that the government and army of Iraq look like they'll win, most local emirs are happy to jump the insurgent bandwagon and high-tail it. Good. Lessons will have been learned about who has the power, the mercy and the money.

On every front, military, social and political, Iraq is becoming more stable and more viable every day. How long before it can hold itself up as a paragon, a beacon to the enslaved Arab world?

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