Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Dead heat in the polls


As of five past one on the 27th of April, the polls had:

Conservatives - 33%
LibDems - 30%
Labour - 27%
Other - 10%

Which is a statistical dead heat as far as I'm concerned.

Usually, I'd have a take on these numbers, but I just don't. Cameron is doing all the things everybody said he should do- he has a Green halo, he talks constantly about inclusiveness, he has replaced all the cantankerous old Englishmen with young ethnic girls, he has tacked his colours to the great hulk of the NHS, he has praised the hard work and devotion of public workers (stop giggling at the back), and done everything in his power apart from a public exorcism to get rid of the legacy of Margaret Thatcher and 1980's Conservatism.

And yet... he is only a couple of nosehairs in front of the callow youth Clegg.

You could make the argument that if the Conservatives are exactly like the LibDems, why bother voting Conservative? After all, the LibDems have been like the LibDems for much longer, and at least have the (dubious) benefit of consistency. Ok, their policies are risible, but then what of the Conservatives constantly humping the leg of the enormous public sector? I thought Conservatives at least sort of wanted fewer public workers, and more private ones? I thought Conservatives at least sort of didn't like state ownership of the means of production? What happened? Did somebody change the definitions of classical liberalism quietly on the side?

I think there is a distinct possibility that Cameron, like the Generals are alleged to do, is fighting the previous war. And getting this one completely wrong. My sense, admittedly based on tiny amounts of anecdotal information, is that there is a brand new hunger in the country for a bit of hard-edged genuine Conservatism. Caused, I believe by the gentle drift of New Labour towards Old Labour destinations, like allowing enormous numbers of foreigners into the country and bulking up the public sector workforce like a himbo on steroids and ratcheting up the anti-wealth-creator rhetoric and policy.

A vague collective sense of where Old Labour took us last time, to bankruptcy, riots in the streets and open class warfare- has arisen like some ghostly wraith. And there is definitely a whiff of Stalinism to Gordon Browns clunking bullying. Enough to remind people of those mini-Stalins of the TUC.

But Cameron is a chameleon whose current colouration is determined by his usual environment- Notting Hill- where pretty much everybody is solidly green, hates real Conservatives, has no solid link to the economy and thinks the EU is just spiffly-wiffly. Seen from Notting Hill, there is no attaction whatsoever in the old Thatcherite Conservative Party policies or styling. The multi-culti soft left cultural takeover is complete. But, well, then there is the rest of Britain, which is mostly not Notting Hill. Where people are still keen to get rich, drive a V-8, build a swanky mini-palace and use as many of Mother Earths resources as possible.

Cameron is no champion of the potential wealth creator. In fact, there is nobody to vote for in this election who is a champion of the potential wealth creator. So I guess thirty-all is about right.

No comments: