Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Iran the major regional power

" Middle East
There is no obvious regional power in the Middle East, especially after the instability following the fall of the former regimes of Afghanistan and Iraq. There are three Middle power states with considerable power and influence in the region: Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. (These are ranked by the NMC scores from the Correlates of War Project.[2])
Turkey more easily fits the traditional definition of a regional power, with by far the largest military budget, the highest GDP, and also the largest population and a stable secular democratic government. Its influence is more effective out of Middle East region, with the Turkish Armed Forces involvement in peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan, Bosnia, Kosovo and Somalia. Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, which is seen as the strongest Inter-Military Cooperation Power in the world. Turkey is a member of G20, which is a group consisting of 19 of the world's largest economies. As of 2006, Turkey is in accession negotiations to join the European Union which is an emerging superpower already. Turkey is the successor to the Ottoman Empire which was considered a Great Power spreading over three continents for over six hundred years. If Turkey joins the European Union and the European sphere, it might trade its influence on Middle Eastern and Central Asian nations for European ones, effectively changing regions."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_power

Every time I read an article in the mainstream media, I now read some version of the following, "Iran, the emerging regional power..."

Does this stand up to any kind of scrutiny at all? One of the best indicators of Irans real standing in its own region, let alone the world, is the utter desparation of its leaders to get nuclear weapons. Exactly as Saddam Hussein felt he was a big fish but with a little mans weapons, the Iranian Mullahs want to be big fish, but they're armed with 1970's technology. Not only that, the economy that underlies that '70s technology is faltering. Every indication is that a number of factors, including very widespread cynicism and disenchantment with the governing elite, militate against Iran being even as strong as it is for very long. But just as Nuclear, Biological and Chemical weapons gave Saddam a huge boost in perceived power in the middle east for the time he possessed them, the same can be true for the Mullahs. And from what they say publicly, we can easily believe that for them, it would be enough to have the weapons to destroy Israel and swagger about the middle east, even if at the same time their people were sitting around with no work and a failing economy.

Iran is not a regional power, but with nuclear weapons it would be. We cannot be allow it to happen. You don't give madmen terrible, destructive toys to play with.

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